Starting soon, we’ll be breaking down the Minnesota Vikings’ roster. This week, however, I wanted to touch on a question I get asked a lot: how good are the Vikings at drafting, and is there hope that the team will get significant playing time from some of the 15 rookies the team drafted this year?
In order to gauge this year’s draft picks, we need to look back at how well Rick Spielman has drafted since he became the team’s GM in 2012. Since then, he has overseen nine drafts which produced 93 players. Since we can’t truly evaluate a draft until the players have been in the league a couple years, we’ll disregard the 2019 and 2020 draft for now. That leaves us with 66 players to evaluate. Let’s get into it.
First Round Picks: Success Rate 57%
First round picks are generally regarded as the “safest” picks. They are the best of the best; with the expectation they will come in and make an impact right away. From 2012-2018, the Vikings drafted 10 players in the first round and hit on four: Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr and Trae Waynes. The team missed on three: Matt Kalil, Cordarrelle Patterson and Laquon Treadwell. Three players, because of injury, have not been able to play enough to be labeled either way: Sharrif Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Hughes. If we exclude the three injured players, the Vikings have hit on 4/7 first round picks (57%) which isn’t great.
Second and Third Round Picks: Success Rate 67%
Second and third round picks should be playing within a couple years and develop into starters or very important backups. Since Spielman likes to move up into the first round, or back to pick up additional picks, the Vikings have only drafted nine players in the second and third round from 2012-2018. Out of those players, the Vikings hit on six picks: Jerick McKinnon, Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, Mackensie Alexander, Dalvin Cook and Brian O’Neill – an incredibly good 67% hit rate. The three players the team missed on were Josh Robinson, Scott Crichton and Pat Elflein (and there’s still hope for Elflein, but this is a make or break year for him).
Fourth Through Seventh Round picks: Success Rate
Players selected on the third day of the draft are gambles. Most of them won’t amount to more than a backup player, so that’s the line we’ll use when applying the hit or miss tag. The Vikings drafted 47 players in the fourth through seventh rounds from 2012-2020. Of those 47 players, the Vikings hit on 21 picks: Jarius Wright, Rhett Ellison, Audie Cole, Gerald Hodges, Michael Mauti, Antone Exum, Shamar Stephen, MyCole Pruitt, Stefon Diggs, Kentrell Brothers, David Morgan, Stephen Weatherly, Jayron Kearse, Jaleel Johnson, Ben Gedeon, Danny Isadora, Bucky Hodges, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Jaylon Holmes, Tyler Conklin and Ade Aruna. The 47% hit rate is solid, considering how much of a crap shoot the later rounds of the draft are.
If we take those stats and apply them to this years’ draft picks, the Vikings will likely hit on one of their two first-round picks, both of their day-two picks, and five day-three picks. That equals one impact player, two solid starters, and five solid backups. That is a solid haul for one draft. Skol!
Which players do you think will make the biggest impact from this year’s draft, and which players will be busts when it’s all said and done? Let me know by reaching out to me on Twitter (@JordanWrightNFL)